Would you bet your job on the container freight market going one way or the other over the next 12–24 months?
Many have made that bet — and regretted it.
My parents, and mentors later in life, taught me that making mistakes can be a good thing, because we learn from them. I should say that we can learn from mistakes — not everyone does.
Having spent some 40 years in the container shipping industry, I’ve pretty much seen it all. Yet it still baffles me how often our industry resists change and struggles to learn from its own mistakes.
I’ve seen large shippers gamble on moving a big portion of their volumes on the cheaper spot market, often breaking long-term agreements, only to find themselves without space when the market “unexpectedly” turns. I’ve also seen ocean carriers walk away from commitments for short-term gain, chasing higher spot rates, and losing the trust and loyalty of their customers in the process.
And therein lies the problem: short-term versus long-term thinking, traded interchangeably in an effort to “beat” the market but without any true form of insurance.
Predicting the Unpredictable in Ocean Shipping
Many in our industry like to think they can predict the next 3, 6, or 12 months of the freight
market with confidence. But the truth is, nobody really knows.
Yes, we can model what’s visible: new capacity coming online, trade imbalances, orderbooks, seasonality, and general macro trends in supply and demand. But those are the easy parts.
What’s impossible to plan for — and what consistently disrupts even the best strategies — are the unknowns: pandemics, wars, canal closures, political decisions, tariffs, natural disasters, labor strikes, or simply irrational behavior across the market.
As we say in my mother tongue, loosely translated:
“It’s difficult to make predictions — especially when predicting the future.”
A New Era of Risk Management in Container Shipping
If only there were a way to insure yourself. A way to mitigate risk.
Oh wait… there is.
At NYSHEX (the New York Shipping Exchange), we’ve spent years designing solutions that allow both sides of the market — shippers and carriers alike — to trade with confidence. Our mission is simple but ambitious:
To unite shippers, carriers, and NVOCCs through a reliable digital infrastructure and transparent market data.
That requires a shift in mindset, away from reactive short-term tactics, and toward a shared, longer-term view of performance, accountability, and predictability.
PPM: Contract Performance Visibility and Accountability
Proactive Performance Management (PPM) from NYSHEX gives shippers, NVOCCs, and carriers complete visibility into how well agreements are being fulfilled.
By tracking performance against agreed parameters and identifying the root causes of shortfalls, PPM transforms the way partners work together. No more “he said, she said.” Instead, performance is measured objectively, enabling real-time collaboration, better forecasting, and stronger long-term relationships built on trust and data.
With PPM, everyone wins:
- Shippers gain assurance that their allocations are protected and performance is measurable.
- Carriers gain insight into where commitments fall short and how to improve reliability.
- Both parties gain a foundation for true partnership rather than transactional firefighting.
NYFI: Transparency for Freight Rate Benchmarking
For decades, container shipping lacked a reliable market reference until NYSHEX introduced NYFI (the NYSHEX Freight Index).
NYFI delivers a standardized, transparent benchmark for freight pricing across major trade lanes. This helps shippers, NVOCCs, carriers, and even financial institutions understand real market movements, reduce uncertainty, and plan more strategically.
Whether you’re a carrier setting capacity strategies or a shipper budgeting logistics spend, NYFI provides the data-driven confidence to act decisively instead of reactively.
- Data is based on actual moving (shipped) cargo and not quoted rates – quoted rates do not necessarily reflect reality. Since the majority of quoted rates do not result in cargo being shipped, this is a misleading indicator of the spot market
- Data comes from all involved parties versus just one of the involved parties
- The aim is to provide all involved parties objectivity and transparency rather than to provide one party with tools which they can leverage against the other
- Data contributors participate in the NYFI governance
- Comprehensive regulatory approvals including FMC oversight
- It’s free!
NYFI Futures: Hedging Freight Market Volatility
Building on the foundation of NYFI, NYFI Futures takes the next step, giving the industry a financial instrument to hedge freight rate exposures.
In the same way energy, grain, or metals markets have long used futures to stabilize prices, container shipping can now use freight futures to lock in predictable costs or revenues months in advance.
This isn’t about speculation; it’s about risk mitigation and financial resilience.
By turning uncertainty into opportunity, NYFI Futures allows shippers and carriers to manage volatility rather than be managed by it.
Learning from the Past, Building for the Future
The container shipping industry doesn’t need to keep repeating the same cycle of overconfidence, significant risk-taking and reaction. We now have the data, the tools, and the platforms to operate with foresight rather than hindsight.
As someone who has watched this industry evolve — often painfully — I believe the next decade belongs to those who can balance agility with reliability, and strategy with integrity.
At NYSHEX, that’s exactly what we’re building: a connected ecosystem where reliable contracts, transparent data, and financial instruments enable everyone in global trade to thrive, no matter what the market throws our way.
You don’t need to bet your job on it – there are ways to win without taking that risk.
